Big week 14 in the NFL tomorrow as teams look to position themselves for a playoff run or stop winning games so they can get the number one pick (great QB class this year so big for the Panthers to lose all there......O WAIT, the Panthers don’t have their first round pick...sorry Panthers).
Saints (-10.5) Over Falcons
This is all dependent on if Matt Ryan or Michael Turner play. Both are questionable, and after reading numerous articles, it both sounds like if they play, they are both not going to be near 75% percent. This does not at all bode well for the Falcons, as they are slipping and sliding due to injuries. The Saints meanwhile had a miraculous win out of their ass over the Redskins last week, something that just proves that this might be their year. Teams who are really good, don’t win these types of games and not go AT LEAST to the Super Bowl. I would be very, VERY surprised if the Saints did not win the NFC. This was the game I circled for the longest time that the Saints would lose. But after all the Falcons injuries, I just don’t see it anymore. Saints go 13-0 and are one step closer to perfection.
Saints 34 Falcons 17
Lions (+13.5) Over Ravens
To the blind, casual fan, the Ravens have a physical, great football team. Unfortunately, in what real football fans called "the real world" the Ravens are a soft, lacking a killer instinct team. Joe Flacco has looked awful in his Sophomore slump season, and though the Ravens defense isn’t statistically bad (6th in points, 9th in total defense) they have lacked that fire they have had for a while. You would be dumb not to think Rex Ryan had a lot to do with it. Ryan was the emotional fire the Ravens needed and fed off of. The Lions will lose, but will not get blowout.
Ravens 20 Lions 10
Bears (+3.5) Over Packers
Maybe this is wishful thinking, and yes, we all know the Bears stink, but the Packers have not beaten anyone. Say what you want about the Giants, but the Packers have not beaten anyone more dangerous or more impressive than the Giants have. The Packers have an outrageous amount of flaws (running game, offensive line) and I feel the Bears are due. Cutler can’t be this bad...Or can he.
Bears 23 Packers 20 OT
Texans (-7) Over Seahawks
I don’t think I have written more than a few sentences of the Seahawks all season. You know why? because they are far and away the most boring team in the NFL. At least the Jags have Maurice Jones-Drew who do the Seahawks have? They either get blown out or blow someone else out, the ladder usually does not happen, and the teams they have beaten have all been other boring teams. Nice contract to Matt Schaub by the way hes a real clutch QB, delivers well under pressure. Nice move. Has nothing to do with Andre Johnson.
Texans 27 Seahawks 18
Broncos (+7) Over Colts
I am not going to go Broncos outright, but that line is a little fishy. If this game was at Denver, I think the Broncos win. However, at home, in cozy Lucas Oil Stadium, the Colts take this one, in a close game, and move to 13-0.
Colts 27 Broncos 23
Jags (-3) Over Dolphins
Don’t look now, but this is a HUGE playoff like game. With the Steelers out of the picture (not at all officially but come on, do you think the Steelers are a playoff team after losing to the Raiders and Browns back to back) you pretty much have a battle between the Jags, Dolphins, Jets, and Ravens for that last AFC wild card spot. This is very intriguing for a couple of reasons. For one, if the Bengals end up with the #3 seed, the #6 team I think is going to win. Which would set up a nice #6 team vs. Colts matchup which could be a 30 point Colts win. Second, the battle between all four of these teams is going to come down to the wire, maybe the last week of the season, that is why this game is so important. If the Dolphins lose, cross them off the playoff list. They would be three games behind the Jags (2 games in the standings plus the Jags have the tie breaker making it 3) so they would officially be eliminated, three behind with three to play. As I previously mentioned, the Ravens are going to win, putting them at 7-6 (7-4 Conference) and the Jets should win Mark Sanchez or not. If the Jets win they would go to 7-6 (6-5 Conference) and leap frog Miami. The Jags, as I think they will, will take care of business and go 8-5. But now it gets REALLY interesting. The Jags have a home game against the Colts next week, a game that I can see the Jags winning, followed by @ the Pats and a home game against the Browns. Popular believe would mean the Jags would go 9-7. I, on the other hand, think the Jags will in fact beat the Colts and finish 10-6. The Jags will ultimately grab that last spot in the field of 6.
Jags 23 Dolphins 17
Bills (+1) Over Chiefs
Common, I am in playoff football mode, not meaningless games that’s main storyline is how long is TO going to try.
Bills 13 Chiefs 10
Redskins (-1) Over Raiders
What did I say? I thought we were not going to cover non playoff teams. Alright, well the Redskins almost made me look like a genius last week, until they collapsed....AGIAN. Yes, I am going against my rule of not picking the Redskins two weeks in a row and it probably will back fire.
Redskins 17 Raiders 13
Rams (+13) Over Titans
Wow, soooooo intriguing. My question though is why is this line so high?? The Rams have done well against the really obnoxiously high spread so I don’t see how Chris Johnson and company is going to change that. Though, I do see Chris Johnson rushing for about 250 yards in this game.
Titans 26 Rams 17
Vikings (-6.5) Over Bengals
Ok, THATS more like it. The Favre theory I have had all year is making a showing, as Favre stunk up the joint last week. I am absolutely not sold on the Bengals, as they have fallen off recently, winning but playing badly against bad teams. I don’t like that sign. If they won this game, I would re-evaluate the Bengals. But I think the Vikings are too talented for them. Which leads me to my next point. Why does everyone think the Vikings are this juggernaut team? Look at the teams they have lost to (Cards, Steelers) and look at the teams they have beaten (Browns, Lions (2), 49ers, Packers (2), Rams, Ravens, Seahawks, Bears). ARE YOU KIDDING ME. That is by far BY FAR the easiest schedule I have ever seen. Enough with the four easy games the Giants played, after that they have not played an easy game since week 5. The Vikings have had 8 count them 8 easy games this year. You want to discount the second Packers game fine, but don’t tell me the Ravens at home is not an easy game. The Ravens stink, their QB as awful, and their defense is not nearly the same. Don’t give me the Ravens who are 6-6 in a down-year AFC North. I would take the Bengals but I just don’t see them coming up in a big spot. They don’t know how to win. You watch, I have been saying this for a long time now, Favre and this team will lose in some big spot whether its the NFC Title game or the 2nd round of the playoffs.
Vikings 30 Bengals 20
Panthers (+13) Over Pats
Talk about a team that simply does not have it. The Pats are not good period. Their defense flat out sucks, and Moss is now starting to take off plays. When Moss takes off plays you know he knows something is wrong. This does not bode well down the stretch for the once mighty Pats.
Pats 27 Panthers 16
Bucs (+4.5) Over Jets
A reader emailed Bill Simmons saying this before the Jets took on the Panthers a couple weeks ago: "I can guarantee you the Jets beat both Carolina and Buffalo, get their fan pumped up that they can make a big playoff run, and then lose and crush their fan base with them to the 1 win Tampa Bay Bucs." Well, so far this guy has been right, and this is typical Jets reeling you in spitting you out type of season. Paper and stats and everything tells me Jets, but my gut and what I have seen with the franchise year in and year out tells me Bucs. I know I said early in this column that the Jets SHOULD WIN and go 7-6. But should win doesn’t mean they will win.
Bucs 20 Jets 17
Chargers (+3) Over Cowboys
Chargers in a heartbeat. I love the roll this team is on, but I question whether this team could do it in a big spot in the playoffs. The Cowboys on the other hand are a mess. Typical December swoon, if they lose, look out below, because this is just going to keep snowballing from here.
Chargers 29 Cowboys 23
Cards (-3.5) Over 49ers
The Cards are winning this division end of story. When has the NFC West had two good, competitive teams at the same time? You have to go all the way back to 2003 when the Rams went 12-4 and the Seahawks went 10-6. Also, in 2001, the Rams were 14-2 and the 49ers were 12-4, which was pre re-alignment.
Cards 30 49ers 16
Giants (PK) Over Eagles
I am going to use this space to write a little preview of the game. This is the season for the Giants, if they lose this game, they can just go home because the division is out of the question, and the wild card looks very much up in the air. I don’t know about you, but I think this once again is going to be a war. The Eagles EMBARESSED the Giants last meeting, a 40-17 pounding in which the Giants looked like a pee-wee team out there. However, I took from that game that the Giants looked so, SO, SO bad but the Eagles were not that good. I look at the Eagles as a solid football team, but not a team the Giants can’t beat.
The Giants need to run the ball well, something they have not done all year, and I am not yet convinced that the Giants well ever run the ball well this year. Jacobs looks like a shell of his former self, and the O-Line is simply not doing a good job of opening up holes for him. Bradshaw meanwhile had two nice runs, but continued that fumbling problem and cost the Giants 7 points. Another thing that concerns me is Eli is December at Giants Stadium. Let’s throw out his rookie year, he only had 7 starts and was thrown into the fire on a team that was collapsing and panicking. So starting in 2005, Eli in December/January at home is 4-8 with 13 TD's 13 INT and 4 of those TD's came in one game against the Pats in 2007. Bottom line is that he has been absolutely atrocious at home in the last month of the season. Eli has to HAS to come out and have a big game tomorrow, BUT NOT FORCE THINGS. If it is not there, then throw it away, or take the sack, do not DO NOT throw these ridiculous lobs in traffic that are always picked and returned for a big gain.
The defense is the other issue. Remember guys, this defense still stinks, it stinks big time. But if they force turnovers, and make big stops, then that should be enough. On the flip side, that is very, very hard to do. They were lucky to do that in the Cowboys game, despite out playing Dallas (I have to bring this up because Ron "I am the biggest Eagles homer on the face of the earth and though I am incredibly biased I still inexplicably have a job on ESPN and announce Monday Night Football....O and LT OWNED me as a player and made me look like a 5 year old girl" Jaworski said that Dallas outplayed the Giants last week. How so? If not for a late garbage TD, the Giants would have won by 14. Typical Jaws). The Eagles are going to try to go deep to Jackson, but there is some good news in this, the Giants Stadium winds are supposed to make an appearance tomorrow night. That means this will significantly cut down on the deep balls McNabb will want to throw to Jackson and Maclin, killing the thing the Eagles rely on most.
I know most people are going to pick the Eagles, but I really think the Giants can win. They are gaining confidence, this crowd is going to be a playoff atmosphere a ROCKING Giants Stadium in the last ever game against the Eagles (barring a playoff meeting) at Giants Stadium. The Eagles will be there, but the Giants fans are going to be drunk, very rowdy, and loud as hell. As I mentioned before, this is it for the Giants. Win this game, and they are 8-5, 6-3 in the conference, but more importantly 4-1 in the division. Barring a letdown against the Redskins next Monday night in Washington, the Giants can go 5-1 in the division, which would be better than the Eagles or Cowboys, and would give the Giants a tie breaker in the NFC East. The Giants then would play the Panthers at home in the last ever regular season game at Giants Stadium (could be last game ever) and then @ the Vikings. Let’s say the Giants win the next three games and are 10-5 going into the Vikings game. The Eagles have two home games against the 49ers and Broncos and will most likely be 10-5 heading into a showdown at Dallas. The Cowboys have a home game against the Chargers, @ the Saints, @ the Redskins and then home against the Eagles in an extended playoff game. Heres how I can see this stacking up if the Giants beat the Eagles tomorrow night, heading into that Eagles-Cowboys matchup:
Giants 10-5 (5-1 Division)
Eagles 10-5 (3-2 Division)
Cowboys 9-6 (2-3 Division; beat the Eagles 20-16 in their first meeting)
(Yes, I am predicting the Cowboys to beat the Saints, but in typical Cowboys fashion lose @ the Redskins)
This could be a problem for the Giants. The Vikings have a easy schedule along the way, (home vs Cinncy, @ Carolina and Chicago) but the Favre collapse does loom, as well as the fact they will play two very cold games in Carolina and a bone-chiling cold game in Chicago. They can easily get picked off in one of those games, not to mention the Cinncy game. If that happens it is not good because the Cards have the easiest next three games of any NFL team. @ the 49ers, @ the Lions, and home against the Rams before they face off at home against the Packers. So lets say the Vikings lose one of those games, and are 12-3 going into the Giants game. The Cards will probably be 11-4 heading into a home game against the Packers. Remember if both the Vikings and the Cards tie at the end of the year, the Cards get the #2 seed because of the win they had over the Vikings last week. All of this means if the Vikings lose one or two games from now until the Giants game, that the Vikings will be playing very hard against the Giants, and frankly I dont see the Giants winning that game despite the "momentum" the would have had heading into that week. Adding the Packers into the mix, they have games @ the Bears, @ the Steelers, home against the Seahawks until the game @ the Cards. I can see them going 10-5 heading into that game which would mean the playoff scenario would look like this heading into week 17:
#1 Saints 14-1 @ Panthers
#2 Vikings 12-3 vs Giants
# 3 Cards 11-4 vs Packers
# 4 Giants 10-5 @ Vikings
# 5 Eagles 10-5 @ Cowboys
# 6 Packers 10-5 @ Cards
LOOMING
Cowboys 9-6 vs Eagles
That is one hell of a week 17. Now, this is all predictions, so this will probably never take place. But can you imagine what this would be like. Every team plays hard, and I can tell you the Giants will lose that game if the Vikings play hard.
Scenario #1: Giants win @ Vikings, Cards beat Packers, Eagles beat Cowboys
Giants win NFC East and 4th seed. Since the Cards beat the Giants, the Giants cant go any further than the 4th seed. The Cards are now the # 2 seed. The Vikings are #3 the Eagles are # 5 and the Packers are #6 based on their win over Dallas.
Scenario # 2: Giants lose @ Vikings, Eagles win @ Cowboys, Packers win @ Cards
That would eliminate the Cowboys, the Packers would be 11-5 and be the number 5 seed automatically. The Vikings are # 2 and the Eagles are #3 based on common opponets record being better than the Cards. The Cards are #4 and the Giants sneak in as a # 6 seed.
Scenario # 3: Giants lose @ Vikings, Cowboys win vs Eagles, Packers win @ Cards
Vikings are the # 2 seed, the Cards are # 3, the Giants win the NFC East based in division record and are the # 4 seed. The Packers get the # 5 seed at 11-5 and the Cowboys, based on sweeping the Eagles are now the # 6 seed. The Eagles are eliminated.
Scenario # 4: Giants lose @ Vikings, Cowboys win vs Eagles, Cards win vs Packers
The Vikings are the # 2 seed, the Cards are # 3, the Giants win the NFC East and are the #4 seed. Based on common opponets, the Cowboys and Eagles are the # 5 and # 6 seed, eliminating the Packers, despite the fact the Packers beat the Cowboys. (All three teams would be 8-4 in the conference based off of this scenario so it would then go to common opponets).
Whew. That was pretty complicated. Pick a scenario you want, more than likely this will never happen so I just wasted an hour are so conjuring up a hypothetical scenario. Bottom line, the Giants need to win tomorrow night or none of this is possible.
- Lew
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